Young Australian Skeptics

Hello, fellow skeptics.

I’m sure you have all heard the analogy comparing science to somebody trying to find their keys, and it demonstrates well how people use the process of science quite often in their everyday lives. For those who haven’t heard it though, it goes that when somebody loses their keys, they develop a hypothesis (my keys are under the couch) and then they proceed to test it (look under the couch). If their hypothesis was deemed incorrect (the keys weren’t under the couch), then they formulate a new one (the keys are locked in the car). This process is repeated until a suitable hypothesis which holds up to observation (I found the keys) is found.

Now this is all well and good, but I recently heard this analogy abused by an ESP research proponent. He stated that when you lose your keys, you will keep checking the same place over and over again, ‘just to be sure’. This is his justification for why ESP research should continue to be done.

This is not true, for a couple of reasons. When somebody loses their keys, they first assess the prior probability of the likelihood that they lost their keys there. One does not check at great Aunt Sherle’s house if the last time one went there was when they were 11 for Easter one year. Nor does one check under the couch, if one has already looked 40 times, because every second time they checked they thought they saw something under there. I feel this is the point at which ESP research is at.

Prior probability says it’s unlikely, but we had a little look, just to make sure. We looked, we found nothing, the general scientific community left it, but a few cranks, nuts and loons stayed behind, convinced that 0.5000002 is worth investing millions of dollars in research. I think it’s well past time to move on, and the sooner ESP research is brought to a stop, the sooner the money can go to worthy science with real, interesting outcomes.

I will leave you with a quote from Albert Einstein, “Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I’m not to sure about the former.” Albert Einstein, theoretical physicist, master mind behind general relativity, special relativity, and mass-​​energy equivalence, Nobel prize winner, and patent-​​office clerk of some note.

Don’t forget to check out my blog, The Skeptical Teenager.

This entry was posted on Sunday, March 4th, 2012 at 8:31 pm and is filed under Paranormal, Research, Skeptic. Tagged as: Einstein, ESP, Logic. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.